Wolf-Ungulate Dynamics

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The potential impact of wolf predation on ungulate populations is a highly controversial issue, both within the scientific community and for the general public. As wolf numbers increase and the affected states of Montana, Wyoming and Idaho move towards state management of recovered wolf populations, the status and trends of important ungulate populations will be a critical component in future decision making processes. This information will be especially pertinent to decisions affecting potential adjustments in hunter harvest prescriptions for those ungulate populations based on their population objectives.

We are cooperatively monitoring the impacts and dynamics of wolf packs and predation rates on elk distribution and demographics across a range of environments in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) using three study sites.  Wolves are well established within Yellowstone National Park (YNP) and are now dispersing from the Park and establishing new packs in adjacent areas. Elk populations in southwestern Montana represent a highly valued big game resource and extensive population data have been collected over time on various herd units. Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks administrative Region 3, surrounding YNP, provides approximately 50% of Montana elk harvest and hunter days. 

Land ownership, land use, vegetation communities and environmental conditions differ among the upper Gallatin, lower Madison, and upper Madison mountain complexes. Elk harvest management strategies also differ across this landscape and reflect the different migratory patterns, harvest availability and habitat of these elk herds. Our broad scale approach will allow comparisons to be made among the demographics of elk herds subjected to wolf predation but no hunting and herds impacted by both wolves and hunting.  By working at three sites in the GYA that differ in critical variables such as elk density, herd size, intensity of use by wolves, snow depth and human harvest, we will be able to make comparisons among sites to identify the factors that have the strongest impacts on wolf-elk dynamics. Because historical data on elk numbers and demography are available for all three sites, extending back as far as the 1920's, we will also be able to make pre- and post-wolf comparisons within each site, effectively using wolf reintroduction as a natural experiment with three replicates.