The Next Oil Crisis

Scenario:

In 1973, and again in 1981, political events shook the oil-consuming world.   Middle East politics and war destabilized the economic footing of the relationships between the industrialized world and the less-developed oil-producing nations.  As a direct short-term consequence, Americans paid much more for gasoline, waited in lines for rationed supplies, and changed their energy consumption habits.  Since that time, gasoline prices have fallen to an inflation-corrected all-time low - about 60% of the 1975 high and 40% of the 1982 high.  However, the February, 1999 low was followed by a sharp (20 to locally 100%) rise, triggered by an apparent agreement to limit production by OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). What will happen in the next ten years?

Problem:

Research the current energy situation, with an eye toward predicting the future.   An excellent place to start is the Depart of Energy's Energy Information Administration's 25th Anniversary Web Page.  This summary of statistics (as PowerPoint slides) summarizes excellently where we are and how we got here.  As to where we are going - here are two competing points of view:

1. The American Petroleum Institute speaks as the voice of the U. S. petroleum business - for exploration through development, production, refining, and marketing.  They are convinced that oil will be as important a part of our future as it has been of our past.
2. In contrast, an unattributed Web page summarizes the doomsday scenario of oil availability, from M. King Hubbert's prediction of depletion during the postwar rise of oil production to Colin Campbell's current analysis.

Assignment:

In your group, write a concise, well-organized, well-reasoned position paper in which you predict the evolution of oil availability and pricing over the next decade. Preface your paper with a single summary sentence which can be read to the class 20 minutes from the end of lab.  We will then contrast your conclusions and attempt to achieve a consensus prediction of the next oil crisis (or lack thereof).  Your written paper will be submitted and critiqued for organization, spelling, and other mechanical issues as well as for content and logic (but not your conclusion!).